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Update September 2024:
The question has been on our minds since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 – will he, won’t he? Will Putin order the use of nuclear weapons? Will the taboo against using nuclear weapons hold? What would be the impact of the use of a (tactical) nuclear weapon?
All these questions have gained greater urgency as Ukraine has launched strikes deeper and deeper inside Russia, including with ground troops in the Kursk region, and responding to attacks on the territorial integrity of Russia is a reason for using nuclear weapons that Putin has refered to in his nuclear threats since the start of the war.
We provide answers to your questions about President Putin and Russia's nuclear threats.
Will Russia use nuclear weapons against Ukraine?
Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly violated international law, but has not engaged in the actual use of nuclear weapons, leveraging threats to use them instead. No one wants to believe that nuclear weapons will be used, but as long as nuclear weapons exist, they can be used. That is what nuclear deterrence is based on - credibly threatening to mass murder civilians with nuclear weapons.
Russia has used nuclear threats throughout the conflict to try to intimidate other countries into limiting their support for Ukraine and some commentators and politicians in western countries have argued Putin is bluffing and will not use nuclear weapons so support for Ukraine should be much stronger.
As time has passed this potentially dangerous complacency has spread among western opinion formers and decision makers. Its latest iteration has been the argument that the Ukrainian incursion across the border into Russia’s Kursk region without provoking a nuclear reaponse shows Putin is not serious about using his arsenal.
The terrifying but true reality is that we cannot know for certain if Putin - or any leader of a nuclear-armed state - will use nuclear weapons at any time. The doctrine of deterrence that all nuclear powers follow requires creating such a sense of uncertainty – which is one of reasons it is such a dangerous tenet. We do not know what could lead the situation to escalate out of control. What we do know is what could happen if it does: nuclear weapons pose unacceptable humanitarian consequences - and there is no response capacity to help survivors in the aftermath.
How many nuclear weapons does Russia have?
Russia has around 5,580 nuclear weapons - the world’s largest nuclear arsenal - and can launch its nuclear weapons from land-based missiles, from submarines or from planes. Russian nuclear weapons range widely in destructive yield - from weapons equivalent to hundreds of kilotons of TNT to so-called “tactical” nuclear weapons that mostly range from about 10-100 kilotons.
But the use of even one of these “smaller” nuclear weapons would have devastating humanitarian consequences. The bomb that destroyed Hiroshima and killed around 140’000 people by the end of 1945 with a yield of 15 kilotons is the size of one of the smallest weapons in the Russian arsenal.
What is a tactical nuclear weapon?
A tactical nuclear weapon is any weapon that’s not been classified as “strategic” under US- Russian arms control agreements (SALT, SORT, START). Most frequently, ‘tactical’ nuclear weapons imply the weapons that were designed to be used on the battlefields of Europe during the Cold War. In the last century, they were deployed across the continent in case a 'hot' conflict between NATO and the Warsaw Pact were to escalate. Deployed tactical weapons in Europe can have explosive yields up to 300 kilotons, or 20 times that of the bomb that destroyed Hiroshima. Sometimes these weapons are also referred to as ‘sub-strategic’ or ‘non-strategic’.
Learn more about tactical nuclear weapons
What would happen if a nuclear weapons were used?
A nuclear weapon is a nuclear weapon — no matter its size, yield, or range. Its use anywhere, at any time, would have profound humanitarian consequences.
After the detonation of a “small” nuclear weapon in Hiroshima, around 140,000 people died and generations later, people are still suffering from diseases caused by the radiation.
Learn more about the short and longer term impact of nuclear weapons on people and the planet
How can we prevent nuclear weapons use?
To make sure that any further use of nuclear weapons remains unthinkable, threatening to use nuclear weapons must never become acceptable. The international community must consistently and categorically condemn any and all threats to use nuclear weapons. Right now, every voice raised against nuclear weapons and nuclear threats reduces the risk, and can help prevent their use.
Unequivocal condemnation from the international community can stigmatise and delegitimise nuclear threats, help restore and strengthen the norm against the use of nuclear weapons, and reinforce disarmament and non-proliferation efforts. Since the start of the war, ICAN's partner organisations have been working around the clock to make sure all governments condemn these threats and prevent nuclear use. In a clear demonstration of leadership for global security concerns, the states-parties to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), expressed their objections to these threats in the in June 2022, which the G20 followed with their condemnations in 2022 and 2023. Individual leaders have also condemned nuclear threats in similar language, including China’s President Xi Jinping and Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
We have agreed that threatening nuclear attacks is irresponsible and dangerous”
- Olaf Scholz, German Chancellor Nov 4 2022
Condemnation of threats is not just empty rhetoric: delegitimisation works. It has been shown to influence the behaviour of nuclear-armed states. Nuclear experts argue that international criticism of Russia’s nuclear threats has prompted the Russian government to walk back on some of its more overt threats.
The only way to achieve the total elimination of the risk of nuclear weapons use, however, is the total elimination of these weapons altogether. The United Nations Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons is the only international treaty to prohibit all nuclear weapons activities, including the threat of use. It makes nuclear weapons illegal. Every country should join this instrument to delegitimise nuclear weapons. Find out if your country has joined the treaty (and urge your government to do so if they have not).
Original publication date: January 31 2023