The NATO alliance will run its annual exercise to fight a nuclear war in Europe from 13 to 23 October this year. The alliance calls the manoeuvres, in which its aircraft practice how they would use nuclear weapons, a deterrence exercise.
This year’s exercise is being hosted by Italy – one of the NATO countries that hosts U.S. nuclear weapons – and involves 17 countries, including Finland and Sweden which only joined the alliance in 2023 and 2024 respectively.
There are now 6 NATO countries that have US nuclear weapons on their territory – Belgium, Germany, Italy, The Netherlands, Türkiye and the United Kingdom (though the US weapons in the UK and Türkiye are currently for use by the US Air Force, not the host countryAir Force).
The Nato headquarters in Brussels. (Photo: NATO)
NATO claims the yearly exercise is defensive and not aimed at any country. But it can serve to increase nuclear tensions with Russia that are already at a heightened level.
Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 using overt and tacit nuclear threats to try to intimidate other countries not to intervene in favour of Kiev, the use of nuclear rhetoric in Europe has become more common.
The Executive Director of the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), Melissa Parke, called the continuing escalation of nuclear exercises and signalling completely irresponsible: “Nuclear exercises and missile tests are nothing more than rehearsals for mass slaughter. The countries with nuclear weapons all claim to be responsible, but they are the very opposite. They are playing roulette with all our lives. The majority of countries see this for what it is and have rejected nuclear weapons by joining the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. It is time the rest of the world followed their lead.”
In the past two years, European countries have emphasised the role of nuclear weapons to their military plans and some European politicians have talked openly about the need to acquire their own weapons – contrary to their legal commitments under the Nuclear non-Proliferation Treaty.
The International Committee of the Red Cross and Red Crescent and other humanitarian organisations are clear that an adequate emergency response to a nuclear detonation is not possible. None of the countries that have nuclear weapons and practice to use them - or any other organisation in the world - has the capacity to deal with the consequences of the use of nuclear weapons.
For some leaders it is not just rhetoric, and the last few months have demonstrated a willingness to practice using weapons of mass destruction from most of the nuclear armed countries.
French nuclear armed submarines
Earlier this month, The French navy carried out a test of a submarine-launched ballistic missile over the North Atlantic. The operation was overseen by President Macron who made thinly veiled references to Russia in his comments. He talked about the need to be feared and said the missile test was a message "sent loud and clear for wherever it must be received".
Macron watching the M51.3 missile test from the frigate Auvergne. (Photo: Ministère des Armées et des Anciens combattants.)
The images of President Macron watching the launch, published by the French government, were compared by some observers to similar pictures of North Korean leader, Kim Jong Un, at tests of his forces’ missiles. A comparison that underlines how all nuclear-armed states have a similar approach to their weapons as symbols of power and a tool to threaten their adversaries.
Russian threats
Russia has recently issued a threat against NATO. It warned the alliance directly that if it moved against the Russian territory of Kaliningrad that lies between Poland and Lithuania and is not directly linked to Russia, it would use all weapons at its disposal including nuclear weapons to defend it.
Chinese nuclear armed submarines
Paris and Moscow have not been alone in using tests and signaling to threaten the use of nuclear weapons. The United States routinely tests its intercontinental ballistic missiles over the Pacific. A few months ago, China carried out a rare test of a submarine-launched ballistic missile over the same ocean.
Indian ballistic missiles
India carried out a test of an upgraded ballistic missile over the Bay of Bengal on the anniversary of the US nuclear attack on Hiroshima in August. Whether the timing was intentional or not, India justified the test in the same way France and others do - as a show of strength and determination to use these weapons of mass destruction if needed.
North Korean missiles
North Korea has continued to carry out regular missile tests to demonstrate its ability to cause massive damage and harm to its adversaries.
The doctrine of deterrence stipulates that an adversary has to believe a country is prepared to use nuclear weapons in order to prevent an attack. This makes the use of nuclear weapons, by accident or design, more likely - and deterrence only needs to fail once for the consequences to be catastrophic. All of these tests and rehearsals are preparations for the first step of deterrence failure, but none of these countries is preparing for the second step, when nuclear strategist Herman Kahn said “the survivors would envy the dead”.