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Members of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) are meeting at the UN in New York from April 28 to May 9, 2025 against a backdrop of nuclear threats, recurring compliance failures by the nuclear weapons states, and a worrying resurgence of calls to develop or acquire nuclear weapons by certain states in Europe and Asia. All eyes are on this session to deliver, at the absolute minimum, an agreement that all member states still abide by the principles and implications of non-proliferation that give the treaty its name.
What to expect from this NPT “Prepcom”?
This third and final session of the Preparatory Committee for the Eleventh Review Conference of the NPT, comes against a background of heightened nuclear risk - with two of the world’s nuclear armed states engaged in conflict, continued escalatory rhetoric by nuclear armed states, and a full-blown debate about nuclear proliferation as leaders scramble to respond to uncertainties raised by Trump’s many changes in foreign policy.
It also comes on the heels of three consecutive failures to achieve an outcome:
- The Second Session, held in Geneva in 2024, concluded in Geneva without an outcome agreed to by all states parties, merely adopting the chair's summary as a working paper
- The 2023 session in Vienna which closed without adoption of a factual summary agreed to by all states parties, and the chair was even prevented from issuing the summary in his own capacity as a working paper.
- And the 10th review conference, held in 2022 in the first months of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, also failed to agree on an outcome when Russia refused to accept the final, already weakened version, of the agreement.
Yet the success of the NPT is more critical than ever. 80 years after nuclear weapons were first tested and used, the threat nuclear weapons could be used again is as high - if not higher - as it has ever been. Eliminating nuclear weapons is an urgent necessity.
The elephant in the room: nuclear proliferation disguised as deterrence doctrine
The Non-Proliferation Treaty’s main aim is to stop the spread of nuclear weapons to more countries, prohibiting:
- five of the nine nuclear-armed states – China, France, Russia, the UK, and the US – from transferring their nuclear weapons to anyone else or assisting other states to acquire nuclear weapons.
- All other parties from manufacturing or otherwise acquiring nuclear weapons.
Yet many member states are failing to comply with even the letter of the NPT, let alone its spirit. A 2022 legal analysis by ICAN demonstrated that all five nuclear-armed states were in violation of their obligations under Article VI of the NPT, and since then we have only seen further escalation of nuclear threats and rhetoric promoting new nuclear proliferation, cooperation, sharing and stationing arrangements and exorbitant increases in nuclear spending.
Meanwhile, the active debate taking place in Europe and Asia right now on expanding or acquiring nuclear weapons demonstrates how the reliance on nuclear deterrence as part of national security policies does not just pose a threat to the legitimate security concerns of all states but also actively undermines the stated goal of the NPT.
Nuclear deterrence relies on the constant and credible threat to use nuclear weapons against potential opponents, and the understanding that states would be willing to do massive, indiscriminate harm to millions of people, including people and countries that have nothing to do with the conflict. As any use of nuclear weapons would have a catastrophic global impact, this puts the entire world at risk. ICAN has debunked the five pervasive myths that help prop up the fundamentally flawed and dangerous theory that keeps us all under the nuclear threat.
How can states achieve meaningful progress for nuclear disarmament?
The NPT includes an obligation to “pursue negotiations” for nuclear disarmament under Article VI, yet nuclear weapons states and their allies are not only failing to articulate a pathway for nuclear disarmament, but also continue to spend tens of billions of dollars every year enhancing their nuclear arsenals, with no plans to disarm. Meanwhile, the 2017 Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) is already starting to carry out its role of implementing the nuclear disarmament obligations of the NPT.
The TPNW, adopted in 2017 and in force since 2021, was carefully crafted to reinforce, complement, and build on NPT’s Article VI obligations, and provides a pathway to nuclear elimination. Both treaties are an integral and permanent part of the international nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament architecture, and have the same goal at their core: a nuclear-weapon-free world. States parties to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) have strengthened their commitment towards the elimination of nuclear weapons, most recently at its 3rd meeting of states parties. ICAN hopes to hear and support their joint condemnation of these worrying new developments and continued support for the TPNW, during this NPT PrepCom.
Read ICAN’s preparatory briefing here:
https://www.icanw.org/2025_npt_prepcom_briefing_paper
Read more about the complementarity between the TPNW and the NPT here: https://www.icanw.org/tpnw_npt_complementarity
Check out the 5 myths of nuclear deterrence:
https://www.icanw.org/deterrence_myths