SHARE
Recent nuclear signalling by Russia in the context of its ongoing invasion of Ukraine demonstrates the ever-present threat of nuclear escalation as long as nuclear weapons exist.
Update 21/11/2024: As this is an evolving situation, we are continuing to monitor and update information (e.g. of the use of a new Russian intermediate-range ballistic missile on Ukraine) as it becomes available.
On 19 November, Russia officially adopted a new nuclear weapons doctrine announced in September. The new policy states that Russia could launch nuclear weapons in response to an attack on its territory by a non-nuclear-armed state backed by a nuclear-armed one. While experts debate how novel the doctrine is given similar proclamations in the past, it is important to take the nuclear threat, and the escalatory intent behind it, seriously.
ICAN condemned the new doctrine when it was announced in September, saying: “Today’s updates to Russia’s nuclear doctrine outlining when Russia would use nuclear weapons are dangerously ambiguous. They blur the line between conventional and nuclear attack and undermine predictability, increasing the risk of nuclear war.”
Just two days later, on 21 November, following a U.S. change in policy allowing Ukraine to launch U.S. supplied long-range missiles inside Russia, news agencies reported that the Ukrainian Air Force said that Russia had launched an ICBM into the Ukrainian city of Dnipro. Experts initially cast doubt on whether it was an ICBM that was fired, and Russian President Vladimir Putin later confirmed during a televised address that it was a “new” intermediate-range ballistic missile in “response to US plans to produce and deploy intermediate and short-range missiles”. A Pentagon spokesperson also noted the US was pre-notified of the ballistic missile launch through nuclear risk reduction channels just prior to the launch. However, this incident demonstrates the risk of escalation in a nuclear-armed world. An unexpected launch of a nuclear-capable missile, even without a nuclear warhead, can be confused or misinterpreted in the fog of war and lead to inadvertent escalation. Past false alarms have nearly started nuclear wars.
ICAN Executive Director Melissa Parke said “As long as nuclear weapons exist, so does the risk of nuclear war. Mistakes can quickly lead to escalation, resulting in a catastrophic nuclear exchange. Silence or ambivalence risks normalising this reckless behaviour. All countries should join the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons without delay.”
Most countries in the world have chosen to reject nuclear weapons by joining the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), the only international treaty to ban all nuclear weapons activities, including threat to use and use of nuclear weapons. Treaty members repeatedly and unequivocally condemn all nuclear threats.