Updated 17 June 2025
Israel carried out a wave of airstrikes on Iran on Friday, 13 June, targeting nuclear facilities, ballistic missile factories, senior military commanders and nuclear scientists in what Israeli officials described as the opening salvo of a prolonged military campaign. Iran has retaliated with drones and ballistic missile strikes and is taking steps that could undermine nuclear non-proliferation.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and the United States both assess that Iran is not developing nuclear weapons, though recent IAEA reports indicate an increase in the amount of enriched uranium the country is producing. Israel is the only country in the region that has nuclear weapons. The Federation of American Scientists currently reports it has 90 nuclear weapons. ICAN assesses that Israel spent more than $1 billion on its nuclear weapons programme in 2024.
The use of any nuclear weapon would have catastrophic humanitarian consequences. If even just one 100-kiloton nuclear weapon were detonated over a city, hundreds of thousands would die immediately and hundreds of thousands to millions more people would be seriously injured. A fireball would extend out 380 meters in every direction from the detonation point. Within 1.1 kilometers from the detonation point, there would be a fatal dose of ionising radiation. Within 3.26 kilometers there would be blast damage, collapsing most residential buildings and causing local fires, within 4.38 kilometers, people would suffer third degree burns on all exposed skin and within 9.18 kilometers, glass windows would shatter.
Israel bombed the uranium enrichment plant at Natanz, and it also struck and damaged a nuclear research facility in Isfahan. No damage has been seen at the site of the Fordow enrichment site. The IAEA also said no significant increase in radiation levels had been observed at Natanz, citing officials. Israel has declared a state of emergency as Iran retaliates. Iran has launched drone strikes and ballistic missiles strikes in response. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said he expects the conflict to continue for at least two weeks.
More negotiations on Iran’s nuclear programme were scheduled between Iranian officials and the US but Iran has now announced that it would not participate in talks until further notice. This dangerous escalation from a nuclear-armed state has undermined the prospects for successful talks on Iran’s nuclear programme and risks a broader war further threatening civilian lives. Following the start of the Israeli strikes, Iran also announced that it would reduce its cooperation with the IAEA and that its parliament was working on legislation to withdraw Iran from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), although it has not yet taken a decision to do so.
Iran has accused the US of supporting Israel's attack, which the US strongly denies. US President Trump told Fox News he was aware of the strikes beforehand but emphasised that the US played no part, although the US is Israel’s main arms supplier and is regarded as Israel’s strongest military and diplomatic supporter. On 16 June, the G7 released a statement in which it expressed its “support for the security of Israel.” Meanwhile, the foreign ministers of 20 countries, including signatories of the TPNW emphasised that the Israeli strikes on Iran pose “serious threats to the security and stability of the entire region,” and called for an immediate end to the attacks. The former Director General of the IAEA, Mohamed El-Baradei highlighted the important role of treaties, including the NPT and the TPNW, to advance nuclear disarmament and nonproliferation: “No country, Iran, Israel or otherwise should acquire or retain nuclear weapons… I refer you to the Treaty on the Non Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons.”
Resurrecting the 2015 Iran nuclear deal or negotiating a new agreement to reduce the risk of Iran developing nuclear weapons would be a positive step. But all countries must acknowledge that any country that relies on humanity-ending weapons in their security doctrines only makes the world less safe - and take steps to get rid of them. The 2017 Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons offers a path forward to reject these weapons once and for all, multilaterally, and in a verified manner. Israel and Iran should join the treaty without delay.