ICAN around the world
A brief history of nuclear weapons
The first nuclear weapon
In the 1930s there was enormous progress in nuclear research, and when scientists solved the mystery of uranium fission, concern grew in the United States that Hitler’s Germany would create the first nuclear weapon. In US laboratories, scientists worked around the clock to be the first to finish a fissile weapon.
After Japan’s attack on Pearl Harbor in December 1941, the US Congress poured money into military research, and above all research on fissile materials. On July 16, 1945, the so-called Manhattan project had managed to produce enough plutonium to perform a first nuclear test, code-named “Trinity”. The detonation was equivalent to the explosion of around 20 kilotons of TNT and is usually considered as the beginning of the Atomic Age.
Hiroshima and Nagasaki
World War II continued to rage. US President Harry Truman wanted a quick end to the war and a Japanese capitulation. He ordered a nuclear attack on Japan. At the same time, he wished to show Soviet leader Joseph Stalin what capacity the US arsenal held — despite the fact that the Soviet Union was an ally at the time.
On August 6, 1945, a specially constructed bomber was loaded with an atomic bomb to be dropped over the Japanese city of Hiroshima. The attack with the so far almost untried weapon was as much a test as an attack. But it did not fail. Two-thirds of Hiroshima was destroyed and more than 140 000 people killed. Three days later another atomic bomb was dropped on the city of Nagasaki, killing more than 80 000.
The number of deaths in the bombings of Hiroshima varies depending on the source. An estimated 70 000 people were killed immediately. Within minutes nine out of 10 people half a mile or less from ground zero were dead. By the end of 1945, the death toll was estimated at 140 000 as a result of bad burns and radiation related injuries, which grew worse due to the lack of health care.
Proliferation of nuclear weapons
The Soviet Union had already started its nuclear research program in the 1930s, but it would take until 1949 before the first Soviet atomic bomb was tested. It sparked a heated debate in the United States: if the Soviet Union, the home of communism and the foremost opponent to the United States, had nuclear weapons, did it mean the United States had to get larger nuclear weapons?
The 1950s was a decade of aggressive nuclear weapons investments. The United States fired its first hydrogen bomb in 1951. In 1953 the Soviet Union fired its first hydrogen bomb. The United Kingdom declared itself a nuclear-weapon state in 1952 and fired its first hydrogen bomb five years later. In 1958, the United States and Soviet Union agreed on a temporary moratorium on nuclear testing. It seemed like a possibility to negotiate a treaty banning nuclear testing.
Political and military developments, however, made the moratorium a short one. In 1960, France declared itself the fourth nuclear power and in 1961 the Soviet Union broke the moratorium and detonated 30 bombs within a short period, including one bomb of 58 megatons (that is, 58 000 kilotons, compared to the Hiroshima bomb of 20 kilotons). The United States resumed its nuclear testing in the Pacific.
Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev and US President John F. Kennedy brought the world closer than ever to a nuclear war through the Cuban missile crisis in 1962. Two years later, the People’s Republic of China detonated its first atomic bomb. Nuclear testing by these five original nuclear-weapon states would continue into the 1960s, 70s, 80s and 90s.
In 1998, India and Pakistan joined the nuclear club by developing and testing their own nuclear weapons. India had actually conducted a so-called “peaceful” nuclear test as early as 1974. North Korea conducted a nuclear test in 2006 and again in 2009. Israel, known to possess nuclear weapons, has never conducted a nuclear test.
The Cold War arms race
Between the 1960s and 1980s, an intensive arms race took place between the United States and Soviet Union. In 1986 the arms race reached its peak. At that time the two superpowers together had 70 500 nuclear weapons in their arsenals. The total explosive power of these weapons would have been enough to annihilate the world and all its living creatures approximately 25 times.
The United States and Soviet Union kept a close eye on each other’s nuclear arsenals. Each time one was suspected of having increased its arsenal or acquiring a new kind of nuclear weapon, the other state would soon follow. This led to a mad arms race that neither the United States nor the Soviet Union could stop. There would always be the risk that the enemy would have a larger, stronger and more advanced nuclear arsenal.
Both states had their nuclear weapons targeted directly at each other’s territories, ready to be launched within minutes. The nuclear-weapon states applied a military doctrine called “mutually assured destruction”, or “MAD”. The doctrine assumed that both sides had enough nuclear weapons in their arsenals to annihilate the other in the event of a hostile nuclear attack.
The expected scenario was, for example, that the United States would attack the Soviet Union with a relatively small nuclear weapon. The Soviet Union would immediately respond with a larger attack, which would result in an even larger counterattack by the United States. The result would be mutually assured destruction. In fact, a large-scale nuclear war between the United States and Soviet Union would not have been limited to assured destruction of the two superpowers, but of the entire world.
Initiatives for disarmament
At the same time as the arms race between the United States and Soviet Union reached perilous heights, the states were challenged and questioned — both nationally and internationally. Already in the 1970s the first treaties were signed between the two states to limit their strategic nuclear arsenals: SALT I and II (Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty). The United States and Soviet Union — later replaced with Russia — entered negotiations on which weapons could be eliminated.
The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty was achieved in 1987 and seeks to eliminate the US and Russian land-based intermediate- and shorter-range missiles. The first Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty between the United States and Soviet Union, signed in 1991, limits the number of heavy bombers, inter-continental ballistic missiles and submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and also limits launchers and warheads. It prohibits both states from deploying more than 6000 nuclear warheads on a total of 1600 delivery systems.
The second Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty between the United States and Russia, signed in 1995, limits their strategic arsenals to between 3000 and 3500 warheads on delivery systems (tactical weapons and spares are not included in the counts). It also prohibits multiple re-entry vehicles on inter-continental ballistic missiles, and limits the number of warheads deployable on submarine-launched ballistic missiles to between 1700 and 1750.
This treaty, however, has not entered into force: when the United States withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in 2002, Russia declared START null and void the following day. It was replaced by the Strategy Offensive Reductions Treaty in 2002. Also known as the Moscow Treaty, SORT limits the nuclear arsenal of both the United States and Russia to between 1700 and 2200 warheads each. It does not specify which warheads are to be reduced or how reductions should be made, nor does it include any verification provisions. It came into force on June 1, 2003, and is set to expire on December 31, 2012.
Demands for nuclear disarmament and a world free of nuclear weapons are constantly heard from certain organizations, states and individuals. In 1995 Canberra Commission on the Elimination of Nuclear Weapons demanded immediate and firm measures to abolish nuclear weapons and proposed measures for a gradual elimination of nuclear arsenals. In 1996 some 50 military officers from nuclear-weapon states presented an appeal, pointing to the fact that nuclear weapons can never create security — nationally or internationally.
The 1998 New Agenda Coalition (NAC) was an initiative where seven states agreed on a declaration demanding prompt and complete elimination of nuclear weapons. In 2003 Sweden appointed an independent Weapons of Mass Destruction Commission, whose report in 2006 presented 60 substantial recommendations on how to rid the world of weapons of mass destruction. In January 2007 former US foreign and defence secretaries George Schultz, William Perry, Henry Kissinger and Sam Nunn published two surprising articles on a world free from nuclear weapons.
There are also examples of states that have had nuclear-weapon programs but eliminated them. South Africa is the only state to possess nuclear weapons and then voluntarily give up the nuclear weapons option to join the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as a non-nuclear-weapon state. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, nuclear weapons were deployed in four new independent states — Belarus, Ukraine, Russia and Kazhakstan. All former Soviet nuclear weapons were transported to Russia, while Belarus, Ukraine and Kazakhstan chose to join the NPT as non-nuclear-weapon states.
Since the development of nuclear weapons in the 1940s, there has been strong opposition throughout the world to these weapons which can annihilate the entire world and its living creatures. States have made demands in negotiations. Organizations and engaged activists everywhere have marched, rallied, protested and demanded the right to live in a world free from nuclear weapons.
Nuclear arsenals today
The precise number of nuclear weapons in the world’s arsenals is not known. More than 128 000 nuclear warheads have been produced since 1945. Of these, the United States has produced roughly 55 percent and the Soviet Union/Russia roughly 43 percent. In 1986, towards the end of the Cold War, there were an estimated 70 500 nuclear warheads in the world’s arsenals.
The five official nuclear-weapon states — the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France and China — appear to have no plans for ridding themselves of their nuclear weapons in the near future. They still consider it necessary to maintain a nuclear deterrent. Today close to 97 per cent of all nuclear weapons are found in the United States and Russia. Approximately 12 500 of the nuclear weapons in the US and Russia are operational, while the rest are placed in reserves or awaiting dismantlement.
The total world arsenals — including deployed weapons and reserves — was estimated by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute in 2009 at 23 300. That equals about 2000 times the total firepower used during World War II — hence a capacity to destroy the world and all its living creatures many times over, despite the reductions already made.
The continued development and upgrading of nuclear weapons by nuclear-weapon states sends a dangerous signal to non-nuclear-weapon states. The solution is for the nuclear-weapon states, in particular the United States and Russia with the largest arsenals, to admit that nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation are two sides of the same coin. The existence of nuclear weapons fuels proliferation. Complete nuclear disarmament would show that nuclear weapons are not an attractive option.
Nuclear forces in 2009
- United States — 9400
- Russia — 13,000
- United Kingdom — 160
- France — 300
- China — 186
- India — 60–70
- Pakistan — 60
- Israel — 80
- North Korea — 1–10
- Total — 23 330
Source: SIPRI